posted 9th April 2025
Trump’s Tariffs Spark Geopolitical Concerns for African Economies, Warns Expert
Kigali, 9 April 2025 – Kingsley Moghalu, a prominent Nigerian economist and former central bank deputy governor, has raised alarm over the geopolitical risks posed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly imposed “Liberation Day” tariffs, which target global trade partners. In a statement posted on X, Moghalu urged African nations to brace for economic turbulence by bolstering intra-African trade and reducing reliance on volatile global markets.
The tariffs, which have sent ripples through international commodity markets, are expected to hit African economies hard, particularly those dependent on exports to the United States. Although U.S.-Africa trade totals a modest £63 billion ($80 billion) annually—dwarfed by the £236 billion ($300 billion) in trade with China—the impact could still be significant for commodity-reliant nations. Nigeria, a major oil producer, and Zambia, a key copper exporter, are among those likely to feel the pinch. Smaller nations like Lesotho, which exports apparel to the U.S. under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), also face direct losses, with Moghalu suggesting that the Trump administration is unlikely to renew the preferential trade scheme.
Global commodity prices are already softening under the pressure of the tariffs. Oil prices, a critical revenue source for Nigeria, are sliding towards £47 a barrel ($60), a sharp drop from the £59 ($75) benchmark used in Nigeria’s £29 billion ($37 billion) 2025 budget. That budget already projected a £6.3 billion ($8 billion) deficit, and the shortfall could widen as oil revenues falter. “The lesson here is clear,” Moghalu argued. “African countries must shift towards productive economies rooted in manufacturing, local technology, and innovation to achieve stable growth.”
Moghalu, called for African leaders to “future-proof” their economies by leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). He advocated a sharp increase in intra-African trade, particularly in value-added products, as a buffer against external shocks like the U.S. tariffs. “Relying less on ‘global’ trade is no longer just an option—it’s a necessity,” he wrote.
The warning comes as African policymakers grapple with the dual challenge of declining export earnings and rising economic uncertainty. For nations like Nigeria, where oil accounts for a significant portion of government revenue, the tariff-induced price drop could force tough fiscal adjustments. Analysts suggest that without diversification, such economies risk prolonged instability in an increasingly protectionist global landscape.
