posted 9th April 2025
A ₦500 Trillion Nigerian Economy Is Possible -by Olisa Agbakoba
Over the years, I’ve argued that Nigeria’s greatest challenge is not a lack of ideas, but the absence of bold, coordinated, and visionary execution.
Earlier today, I presented our latest policy paper from the Public Sector Practice Group at Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL), this policy paper presents a roadmap for transforming Nigeria into a diversified, production-oriented economy capable of generating a ₦500 trillion national budget by 2026/2027.
This isn’t just ambitious, it’s necessary.
Our analysis, inspired in part by Acemoglu and Robinson’s “Why Nations Fail”, reveals that Nigeria’s chronic underperformance stems from extractive institutions that entrench power and wealth among a select few. If we are to unlock sustainable growth, we must urgently build inclusive institutions that give more Nigerians a stake in the future.
Our blueprint outlines two imperatives:
1. Restructure governance, true federalism, devolution of powers to states and LGAs, judicial independence, legal reform, anti-corruption, and public service overhaul.
2. Unlock sectoral value across the board:
- ₦85T from oil & gas (by shifting from Contract Oil to Development Oil)
- ₦65T via tax reform
- ₦50T from optimising public assets through MOFI
- ₦45T from critical minerals development
- ₦40T by activating "dead capital" through land/property reform
- ₦35T from the maritime/blue economy
- ₦30T each from aviation revitalisation and the digital economy
- ₦25T each from trade reform and local content enforcement
- ₦10T from space industry development
To achieve this, we must act with what I call "Trumpian speed"—decisive, concurrent execution across multiple sectors, streamlined bureaucracy, and full leverage of technology.
But policy success should not be judged in numbers alone.
- Does the market trader in Onitsha have more money in her pocket?
- Is food more affordable for the factory worker in Kano?
- Can the farmer in Benue access better healthcare and education for his children?
- Does the office worker in Lagos see a path to a better future?
These are the real metrics that matter.
With mounting global competition, a surging population, climate threats, and rising debt, Nigeria must act now. Reform is no longer a luxury. It is the moral imperative of our time.
Let’s build the Nigeria that works for everyone!
