Daily Justice

26 April 2025

As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 presidential election, a social media post by Umar Sani, a political commentator, has sparked debate by alleging a calculated strategy to dismantle the northern political hegemony. The claims suggest that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, eyeing a second term, is poised to deploy tactics aimed at weakening the North’s growing political alliance, which appears increasingly resistant to his re-election bid.

According to Sani’s post on X, Tinubu’s alleged plan hinges on four distinct strategies designed to fracture the opposition’s coalition, curry favour with select northern blocs, and solidify his grip on the South. These strategies include:

Fostering Division Between Hausa and Fulani Communities: The approach purportedly seeks to exploit historical differences between these groups, employing a divide-and-rule tactic to undermine northern political cohesion.

Exploiting Religious Fault Lines: By targeting Northern Christians, the strategy aims to siphon their votes to bolster southern support, capitalising on tensions with the Muslim majority.

Manipulating Political Appointments: The plan allegedly involves lopsided appointments to favour certain northern interests, inciting resentment and protests that could be leveraged to secure loyalty through promises of inclusion.

Forging an Alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso: Tinubu is said to be banking on Kwankwaso’s influence to deliver Kano State, potentially offering a vice-presidential ticket or future presidential backing.

However, Sani argues that these strategies are riddled with flaws. He dismisses the attempt to divide the Hausa and Fulani as futile, citing centuries of intermarriage and shared heritage that render such a tactic impractical. Similarly, he questions the feasibility of winning over Northern Christians, pointing to Tinubu’s controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket in the 2023 election and the widely criticised stunt involving alleged fake priests to justify it. Such actions, Sani suggests, have eroded trust that cannot be easily rebuilt.

The strategy of manipulating political appointments, however, could prove effective. In an economy plagued by poverty, unemployment, and dwindling foreign investment, political appointments are a significant avenue for economic survival. Sani notes that these could be weaponised to secure loyalty from key northern figures.

The proposed alliance with Kwankwaso, a prominent northern politician, is viewed with scepticism. Sani argues that Kano’s electorate is politically astute and fiercely protective of northern interests. Their support cannot be guaranteed through political deals alone, particularly if Kwankwaso is not a candidate himself.

As the 2027 election looms, Nigeria’s political landscape remains a complex chessboard. Whether Tinubu’s alleged strategies will succeed in fracturing the northern alliance or backfire remains to be seen. For now, analysts and voters alike are watching closely, awaiting the next move in this high-stakes contest.