Nigeria's Political Landscape: Democracy or Drift to One-Party State?

posted 27th April 2025

Nigeria's Political Landscape: Democracy or Drift to One-Party State?
Abuja, 27 April 2025 – Recent defections of prominent opposition figures to Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have sparked a heated debate about the health of the country’s democracy. While the government insists that democracy is "strong and alive," critics, including prominent human rights lawyer Professor Chidi Odinkalu, warn that Nigeria is drifting towards a one-party state.
In a statement issued on 27 April 2025, Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, dismissed allegations that the administration is undermining democracy. The statement addressed concerns raised by opposition figures and activists following the defection of key politicians, including Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, and former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) vice-presidential candidate Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, to the APC.
Onanuga described the defections as a natural exercise of "freedom of association" and rejected claims of bribery, blackmail, or coercion. “Democracy is not threatened or undermined simply because politicians exercise their rights,” he said, adding that the opposition’s allegations stem from their own “poor organisation, indiscipline, and gross incompetence.”
The statement also highlighted President Tinubu’s democratic credentials, noting his role in strengthening opposition platforms that led to the defeat of a sitting president in 2015. Onanuga urged Nigerians to ignore “alarmists” and support the administration’s economic reforms, which he claimed are in the interest of current and future generations.
However, critics argue that the wave of defections signals a worrying trend. Professor Chidi Odinkalu, a former chairman of Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission, has repeatedly warned that the country is at risk of becoming a one-party state. In recent statements, Odinkalu pointed to the APC’s growing dominance and the weakening of opposition parties as evidence of democratic backsliding.
“The opposition is being systematically dismantled, not by democratic competition but through inducements and coercion,” Odinkalu said in a recent interview. He cautioned that the concentration of power in one party could erode checks and balances, stifle dissent, and undermine the multiparty system that has defined Nigeria’s Fourth Republic since 1999.
Analysts note that the defection of high-profile figures like Governors Eno and Oborevwori, alongside political heavyweights in Delta and Rivers States, has significantly weakened the PDP, once a formidable rival to the APC. The opposition’s failure to form a cohesive “grand coalition” ahead of the 2027 elections has further fuelled concerns about its ability to challenge the ruling party.
The government’s statement also addressed accusations of hypocrisy among critics. Onanuga pointed out that some opposition figures who celebrated the defection of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) are now decrying similar political shifts to the APC. He argued that such inconsistencies expose the opposition’s selective outrage.
Political analysts, however, argue that while defections are a common feature of democratic systems globally, the scale and timing of recent moves in Nigeria raise legitimate concerns. “When defections appear orchestrated and disproportionately favour one party, it can create perceptions of manipulation, whether or not evidence exists,” she said.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, the debate over the state of its democracy is likely to intensify. The APC’s growing influence, coupled with the opposition’s struggles, has led to calls for stronger institutional safeguards to protect the multiparty system. Odinkalu and other activists have urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary to remain impartial and resist political pressures.
For its part, the Tinubu administration maintains that its focus remains on economic recovery and democratic consolidation. “President Tinubu is an avowed democrat,” Onanuga reiterated, pledging that the government will continue to uphold the principles of free speech, association, and choice.
Yet, with prominent voices like Professor Odinkalu sounding the alarm, many Nigerians remain wary. The coming years will test whether Nigeria’s democracy can withstand the pressures of political realignments or whether the country is indeed drifting towards a one-party state, as critics fear.